Stakeholders at the just-concluded Nigeria
Economic Summit (NES) have advised Nigerians to be ready to wait much
longer for the realisation of the goal of becoming an industrialised
nation, Crusoe Osagie reports
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), the non-political private sector-led economic think-tank and advocacy group representing key sectors of the economy, held its 18th economic summit, and after the event said the country's hope of joining the top 20 global economies by the year 2020 may not be realisable.
NESG believes that at the current economic growth rate, Nigeria would be in the 27th position by 2020 and possibly attain the 20th position by the year 2035.
In its 2012 edition of the Nigerian Economic Scorecard developed by NESG's team of in-house research analysts, with input from an external faculty of leading Nigerian economists and business executives, a futuristic look at Nigeria's economic standing on the global scene in the year 2020 was taken in order to determine whether the country can realise its vision of being the 20th largest economy by the year 2020 as contained in the NV20:2020 document.
According to the NESG Chairman, Foluso Phillips, "We adopted the latest update to the IMF's World Economic Outlook Database (October 2012) containing economic data for 186 countries from 1980 and estimated to the end of year 2017. We filtered the countries by the gross domestic product (GDP) at purchasing-power-parity (PPP)."
Next he said that a six-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was calculated for each country's GDP from 2011 to 2017 because the year 2011 was found to be the median year across the countries at which point estimates were applied on actual data.
"Having calculated the six-year CAGR, we further applied this factor to project each country's GDP from 2017, which is where the IMF estimates end to 2020. Having derived each country's GDP in the year 2020, we then sorted the countries in descending order", Phillips added.
Based on their projections using the IMF World Economic Outlook database, their findings revealed that Saudi Arabia will be the 20th largest economy in the world by 2020, with a GDP of $1.2 trillion in purchasing power parity (PPP). Nigeria on the other hand would be the 27th largest economy in the world by 2020, with a GDP of $864 billion in PPP; falling short of being the 20th largest economy by a GDP of $316 billion.
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), the non-political private sector-led economic think-tank and advocacy group representing key sectors of the economy, held its 18th economic summit, and after the event said the country's hope of joining the top 20 global economies by the year 2020 may not be realisable.
NESG believes that at the current economic growth rate, Nigeria would be in the 27th position by 2020 and possibly attain the 20th position by the year 2035.
In its 2012 edition of the Nigerian Economic Scorecard developed by NESG's team of in-house research analysts, with input from an external faculty of leading Nigerian economists and business executives, a futuristic look at Nigeria's economic standing on the global scene in the year 2020 was taken in order to determine whether the country can realise its vision of being the 20th largest economy by the year 2020 as contained in the NV20:2020 document.
According to the NESG Chairman, Foluso Phillips, "We adopted the latest update to the IMF's World Economic Outlook Database (October 2012) containing economic data for 186 countries from 1980 and estimated to the end of year 2017. We filtered the countries by the gross domestic product (GDP) at purchasing-power-parity (PPP)."
Next he said that a six-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was calculated for each country's GDP from 2011 to 2017 because the year 2011 was found to be the median year across the countries at which point estimates were applied on actual data.
"Having calculated the six-year CAGR, we further applied this factor to project each country's GDP from 2017, which is where the IMF estimates end to 2020. Having derived each country's GDP in the year 2020, we then sorted the countries in descending order", Phillips added.
Based on their projections using the IMF World Economic Outlook database, their findings revealed that Saudi Arabia will be the 20th largest economy in the world by 2020, with a GDP of $1.2 trillion in purchasing power parity (PPP). Nigeria on the other hand would be the 27th largest economy in the world by 2020, with a GDP of $864 billion in PPP; falling short of being the 20th largest economy by a GDP of $316 billion.
No comments:
Post a Comment